Rupeedesk Consultancy

Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 28.Dec.2015 to 1.Jan.2015

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 28.Dec.2015 to 01.Jan.2016

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
Choppy next week on F&O rollovers; bias positive

Next week, trade in local equities is expected to be choppy and stock-specific due to
rollover of derivative positions, as the December series will expire. During the expiry
week, market typically tends to be volatile. However, this time dealers expect
volatility to be low. The overall bias is slightly positive as indices have ended up for
the second consecutive week. But, the upside is seen capped as due to lack of any
major positive triggers and year-end holidays globally.

Yesterday, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex ended flat at 7861.05 points and 25838.71
points, respectively, due to absence of any triggers. Breakout above 8000 (on Nifty
50) would be the first confirmation of the resumption of the uptrend at least for the
medium term. The S&P BSE's Sensex closed flat at 25838.71 points. Most market
participants see indices ending 2015 on a positive note and are hoping for a better
2016.

We expect the mid-cap sector to continue to outperform large-caps in the next year,
although action may turn stock-specific, as valuations are getting expensive. The key
reason for the out-performance of mid-caps is the fact that the positive impact of
operating leverage and financial leverage has been more profound compared to large
caps.

This trend is expected to continue on the back of an incremental fall in input costs and
likely reduction in interest rates in CY16. The mid-cap space is Bajaj Finserv, Jagran
Prakashan, Jet Airways, Greaves Cotton, Ashoka Buildcon, Somany Ceramics, among
others. Among sectors, technical charts indicate banks may remain weak next week.

During the session, selling in banking stocks pulled down Nifty 50 and Sensex to the
day's low of 7835.50 points and 25763.40 points, respectively. Although Nifty Bank
had touched a high of 16939.60 points, it failed to sustain gains due to lack of followup
buying and this indicates that some selling is likely. In view of the expected
pressure in banks, traders should keep their positions light on Nifty 50.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 21.Dec.2015 to 24.Dec.2015

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.Dec.2015 to 24.Dec.2015 (Likely to consolidate next week, bias positive)

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 24.12.2015 (Expected to trade rangebound, with the positive momentum)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
After gaining 2% each this week, Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely
to consolidate in the week ahead due to lack of any major triggers
Domestically as well as globally. Domestically, while the winter session
of Parliament will be watched, the non-passage of the Goods and Services
Tax Bill is unlikely to result in an aggressive correction in equities.

We expect the market likely to be volatile in the near term due to
domestic cues, as the prevailing uncertainty towards the passage of the
GST and the challenges in balancing the deficit due to tepid growth in
disinvestment. Continued disruptions in Parliament though could weigh
on sentiment.

After an eventful week, activity is likely to remain subdued in a week of
holidays. On Friday, domestic equities will remain closed for Christmas.
Globally, various markets will be on half day, or will stay shut on
Thursday as well.

The sentiment will remain positive as indices are Nifty is likely to move
in a range of 7700-7950 points for the week. Yesterday, the 50-share
index ended at 7761.95, down 82.40 points or 1.0% from the previous
close.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 14.Dec.2015 to 18.Dec.2015

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 14 to 18.12.2015 (Seen gaining some ground on tribunal's ruling)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Robust industrial growth data for October is seen supporting market sentiment
on Monday but equity markets are still likely to be weak next week as investors
await the outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's two-day
meeting that ends Wednesday.

Industrial growth for October was 9.8% as against 8.0% estimated by most
market participants. Growth in the capital goods sector was 16.1% as against a
decline of 3.2% last year.

While many market participants point to the low base last year, when Industrial
growth declined 2.7%, and due to spending ahead of festival season, some
believe the better-than-expected growth is showing signs of recovery in the
economy. Selling by foreign institutional investors in December in anticipation
of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep any recovery in
equities under check.

Until Thursday, foreign institutional investors and foreign portfolio investors
had net sold shares worth $534.28 mln so far this month on the BSE, National
Stock Exchange, and the Metropolitan Stock Exchange combined. It is
expected that the Nifty 50 will trade with negative bias for the week, however,
the reaction to FOMC meeting outcome could change the course of the market
mid week.

We expect volatility in the market, which he believes is a signal of indices
bottoming out. We advised traders to stay cautious prior to the announcement.
The expectation of volatility over the next week has made some market
participants bullish about equities.

Among sectors, the imposition of a 5-57% anti-dumping duty on cold rolled
steel products from China, South Korea, European Union, South Africa,
Taiwan, Thailand, and US will have a bearing on steel stocks, which could see
investors favouring them but could result in a weak outlook for automobile
stocks.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks for the Week - 23.Nov.2015 to 27.Nov.2015

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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 23 to 27.11.2015 PSU companies seen in range, bias weak; GAIL seen down

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Trade next week is likely to remain volatile due to rollovers to the December futures and
options series, and as equities remain in a sell-on-rise mode. Rollover of positions will be
largely take place on Monday, and Tuesday, ahead of the expiry of the November
derivatives series on Thursday, as market would remain shut on Wednesday for Guru
Nanak Jayanti.

The underlying bias for market, though, remains weak, as market participants continue to
utilise higher levels as exit opportunities. However, a runaway up move seems unlikely in
the upcoming truncated expiry week as FIIs (foreign institutional investors) cash buying
is still missing. Yesterday, FIIs net sold Indian shares worth 940.9 mln rupees on the
BSE, NSE, and Metropolitan Stock Exchange combined, according to provisional data on
the NSE website.

The data showed domestic institutional investors net bought shares worth 6.10 bln rupees.
Besides rollovers, market participants will watch out for the Winter Session of the
Parliament, which begins on Thursday. The fate of crucial bills, particularly the Goods
and Services Tax bill, will be keenly monitored, more so, because the monsoon session
was a washout. Although Nifty 50 crossed 7900 points during the session yesterday, it
failed to sustain.

Yesterday, the index closed at 7856.55, up 13.80 points or 0.2% from Thursday's close,
while the S&P BSE's Sensex closed at 25868.49, up 26.57 points or 0.1%. Both the
indices closed sharply off the day's high of 1% due to selling in banking stocks. In the
futures segment, the gap between the Nifty 50's November contract and spot turned to a
discount of nearly five points from a 15.6-point premium on Thursday. Open interest in
the contract fell 5.3% to 15.79 mln.

In options, traders unwound long positions in 7700-put option of Nifty 50, while writing
was seen in 8000-8200 call options. After witnessing rollover of short positions to the
December derivatives series yesterday, banks are seen drifting lower in the coming week.
While support for the Nifty Bank lies at 16800 points, a closing above 17200 points is
likely to propel the index higher towards 17400 points. The Nifty Bank closed 0.1%
lower at 17055.60 points yesterday, off the session's high of 1.0%.

Stocks of Vedanta and Hindalco Industries are seen falling Monday as BSE yesterday
said these companies would be removed from the Sensex effective Dec 21. Asian Paints,
and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, which would replace these two stocks in
the index, are seen rising. GAIL India, the top performer in yesterday's trade, is seen
rising further to 360 rupees. The stock had jumped 10% to 349.55 rupees yesterday led
by a rally in shares of gas distribution companies. Automobile stocks are also seen rising
Monday and trade with a positive bias during the week on prospects of higher sales once
the recommendations of the Seventh Pay Commission come into effect.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Weekly Outlook for Indian Market and Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 2.Nov.2015 to 6.Nov.2015

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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 02 to 06.11.2015 Range-bound next week; Tech Mahindra may lend cues

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Earnings of major companies for the quarter ended September will set the trend for
equities next week, with investors also keeping an eye on the exit polls for the Bihar
election on Thursday. The bias for the broad market is likely to be weak, especially after
the National Stock Exchange's Nifty erased gains in the second half of the session
yesterday to end down 0.6% at 8065.80 points. The S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.7%
at 26656.83 points. The way markets closed on Friday, we expect decline to continue on
Monday as well, mainly in midcap and small cap space. So, traders should better trade
with strict stop losses or hedge the positions otherwise damage could be severe.

However, if earnings of major companies are good, the rebound in the index may take the
Nifty towards 8180-8200 points. With polling in the Bihar Assembly elections ending on
Thursday, exit polls will be a key indicator of the next ruling party in the state. A win for
the Bharatiya Janata Party will boost sentiment as it will mean higher representation for
the party in the Rajya Sabha, where key bills such as the constitutional amendment to
introduce the Goods and Services Tax are stuck.

Earnings of Nifty constituents--Cipla, Oil & Natural Gas Corp, GAIL India, State Bank
of India, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bharat Heavy
Electricals, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Bosch, and Power Grid Corp of
India--will also be in focus next week. Public sector banks and oil and gas companies'
will be the major earnings to watch out for next week. With some major public sector
banks reporting their Jul-Sep earnings, the Bank Nifty is seen finding support at 16600
points and facing resistance at 18000 points. The analyst expects the bias for the index to
be negative.

Yesterday, the Bank Nifty ended up 0.8% at 17354.50 points aided by gains in ICICI
Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank due to robust Jul-Sep earnings. Among stocks that were
in focus yesterday, Larsen & Toubro is seen extending its decline next week after it fell
over 4% to 1,410.75 rupees as the engineering major sharply cut its order inflow growth
guidance for the current financial year to 5-7% from 15% earlier. After falling 4.4% to
334.65 rupees, ITC is seen weak after it reported a flat net profit growth for Jul-Sep at
24.31 bln rupees, lower than analysts' estimate of 26.15 bln rupees.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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MAJOR SECTORWISE STOCKS & INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 26.Oct.2015 to 30.Oct.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.10.2015 Positive next week; ITC, Dabur earnings in focus

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Corporate earnings and outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's monetary
policy meeting will lend direction to domestic share indices next week, but on Monday
indices are set to witness a gap-up opening as China announced a cut in interest rates.
After Indian market hours, China announced that it had cut its one-year lending rate and
one-year deposit rate by 25 basis points, and reduced its reserve requirement ratio by 50
basis points to boost the economy.

Major European indices extended their intraday gains on the news and were up over 1-
3%. A near 1% rise in Dow futures indicates that the US market will also open on a
strong note later yesterday. Apart from these markets, prices of base metals on the
London Metal Exchange also advanced following China's move, which may boost stocks
of domestic metal and mining companies on Monday.

Yesterday, the Bank Nifty ended up 1.3% at 17934.05 points. Whether the gains in
indices sustain over the week will depend on corporate earnings and outcome of US
FOMC's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the earnings-heavy week and
expiry of the October derivatives series, also expect some volatility in the domestic
equities.

Rollovers will be closely watched this time around as the lot size for the Nifty is higher in
the November derivatives series. In August, the NSE had announced a revision of the lot
size of the CNX Nifty to 75 from 25 starting from the November contract.

Broadly, Nifty is seen moving in the 8200-8400 point range next week. Expect the index
to face stiff resistance between 8350 and 8400 points. Yesterday, share indices ended up
but off the two-month high it hit intraday on weakness in some telecommunication
companies' shares and select index heavyweights. The Nifty closed up 43.75 points or
0.5% at 8295.45 points and the Sensex ended up 183.15 points or 0.7% at 27470.81
points.

In the coming week, Bharti Airtel, Housing Development Finance Corp, Lupin, Maruti
Suzuki India, Ambuja Cements, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, YES Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC,
Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank will detail Jul-Sep earnings. On Monday, Asian
Paints may open down 2-3% as the company's Jul-Sep earnings, released after market
hours yesterday, fell short of analysts' estimates.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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19.Oct.2015 to 23.Oct.2015 - SECTORWISE STOCKS & INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK

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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.10.2015 (RIL seen up on buoyant Jul-Sep GRM, PAT)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries' robust Jul-Sep earnings are set to further lift the mood in the equity markets on Monday, but action in the latter part of the week will be stock-specific, taking direction from earnings of other key companies. Post market hours yesterday, Reliance Industries reported robust earnings—a net profit of 65.6 bln rupees, beating analysts' estimate of 58.39 bln rupees.

The company reported gross refining margin of $10.6 a barrel, up from $10.4 a quarter ago. Besides Reliance Industries, the Jul-Sep earnings of other Nifty constituents such as HCL Technologies, UltraTech Cement, ACC, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Cairn India, HDFC Bank, Wipro, Idea Cellular, and Asian Paints will be in focus next week.

Earnings are important, vital. If earnings are not good, then I think we will see disappointment post that. Some market participants advise caution, even if indices gain. Traders should continue with positive yet cautious approach and prefer only quality stocks even for the day trade. The global markets will also be watched for cues. Technical analysts see the National Stock Exchange's Nifty gaining next week and could test 8300 points after breaking the crucial support level of 8200 points.

The 50-stock index is seen finding support at 8100 points. Yesterday, the Nifty ended at a near two-month of 8238.15 points, up 0.7%, and the S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to end at 27214.60 points. Gains in the broad market were led by banks, with the Bank Nifty ending as the top gainer among sectoral indices, up 1.3% at 17912.85 points.

Next week, the index is seen extending gains and could test 18200 points. Among other sectors, cement companies are also likely to be in focus next week, with ACC and UltraTech Cement reporting their Jul-Sep earnings.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 12.Oct.2015 - 16.Oct.2015

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 12 to 16.10.2015 (Narrow range with negative bias)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
After gaining over 3% this week, the bias for benchmark indices is expected to remain positive next week, while Jul-Sep earnings of key index constituents and data on consumer price index-based inflation and industrial growth will be in focus.

Among index-constituents, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, and Reliance Industries will report Jul-Sep earnings next week. Market sentiment will also depend on data on CPI and index of industrial production.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen consolidating between the levels of 8000 and 8300 points next week. The 50-share benchmark index ended at 8189.70 points, up 60.35 points or 0.7% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27079.51 points, up 233.70 points or 0.9%.

Stocks of information technology companies will be in focus next week as the earnings for the sector are kicked off by Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, the two index and sector majors.

Investors will also closely track Bihar assembly elections, which will begin next week. Voting for 49 seats in the first phase of polls will happen on Monday.

Among sectors, housing finance companies and select banks are seen outperforming as the Reserve Bank of India has cut risk weight requirements on certain home loans. This is also seen positive for stocks for real estate companies in the affordable housing segment over the long term.

Stocks of State Bank of India, IDBI Bank, and Bank of Baroda are seen outperforming the sector. The Bank Nifty is seen taking support at 17,170 points and facing resistance at 17,800 points. The banking gauge has ended its volatile week with modest gains of 2.5%.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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