Rupeedesk Consultancy

Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 28.Sep.2015 to 1.Oct.2015

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 28.09.2015 to 01.10.2015 May open up next week on RBI rate cut hope


Sentiment is expected to be frail next week as foreign institutional investors will continue selling in emerging markets and this will cap any upside if the Reserve Bank of India was to cut rates on Tuesday. The RBI will detail its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy of 2015-16 (Apr-Mar) on Tuesday. The MSCI Emerging Market Index has slumped over 5% this week due to fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, and slows down in the global economy. India has also under-performed most other emerging markets in this month. In September so far, foreign investors have net sold $415.76 mln in the Indian equity market.

Most market participants expect the RBI to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points. Benign consumer price inflation readings, running below the central banks own indicative trajectory and broad-based disinflation have offered room for monetary easing. Expect the RBI to adopt a neutral to a mildly hawkish stance, as it may shift its focus to consumer price inflation target of 5% in January 2017. These factors are seen weighing on benchmark indices in the next week.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is expected trade between 7700-8000 points next week. Thursday, it ended at 7868.50 points, up 22.55 points or 0.3% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 25863.50 points, up 40.51 points or 0.2%.

In the futures and options segment, rollovers to the October series indicate that market participants have transferred mostly short positions in Nifty, and rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, capital goods, infrastructure and metal. The sentiment in banks is also negative as RBI's draft guidelines to change the current base rate framework to ensure faster transmission of policy rate cuts is seen weighing on net interest margins. If the new base rate is implemented then banks' net interest margins are expected to witness a contraction of 13-70 basis points over the next two financial years.

Factoring in concerns revolving around asset quality, slower credit growth and margin compression on adoption of expected new base rate framework. A continuous decline in iron ore and copper prices have ensured that traders roll over a high amount of short positions in the October derivatives contracts of metal companies. On the bright side, information technology sector has witnessed a high rollover of long positions, as the rupee is expected to depreciate further against the dollar. The sentiment is also positive on media sector, which has been relatively insulated from global uncertainty and is also expected to post robust growth in revenue. This was evident from the high amount of long rollovers seen in Dish TV, Sun TV Network and Zee Entertainment.

Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 14.Sep.2015 to 18.sep.2015

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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 14 to 18.09.2015 (Bounceback seen post spectrum trading nod)


All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve next week as the central bank is holding its two-day
monetary policy meeting on Wednesday to decide on hiking interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

On Monday, indices will react positively to better-than-expected July industrial growth data.
However, volatility is likely to increase as the outcome of the Fed meeting gets closer. Comments of US Fed officials regarding recent economic data have not given a clear indication whether a rate hike is imminent.

After remaining closed on Thursday for Ganesh Chathurthi, domestic equity market will react to the outcome of the Fed meeting on Friday. On Monday, indices may open up as India's industrial growth in July came in at 4.2%, higher than estimate of 3.4%. It was 4.4% a month ago.

Focus will also be on the headline inflation rate based on the CPI (Combined) for August, due after market hours on Monday. The headline inflation rate is expected to fall to a nine-month low of 3.5% in August from 3.78% a month ago due to statistical effect of a high base.

While some market participants said the domestic equities could see a knee-jerk downside reaction next week if Fed hikes rates, others believe that a rate hike has been factored in and a significant fall is unlikely.

The most likely scenario is that the Fed will say time for hiking rates is getting closer. The second most likely scenario is that they will hike by a small amount and signal that there are more hikes to come. However, a delay in rate hike by the US Fed to October or December could stall capital inflows in the country till winter due to the uncertainty over revival in corporate earnings and the Bihar Assembly elections.

7.Sep.2015 to 11.Sep.2015 - Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for fhe Week

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 07 to 11.09.2015


The equity market will continue to face the risk of a further slump next week as investors around the world grapple with fears of yet another slowdown in the global economy. Yesterday, the National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at a 13-month low of 7665.05, down 2.2% from Thursday, and posting a fall of 4.3% for the week.

After fall, there will be caution till the US Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting on Sep 16-17. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 25201.90 points, down 2.2% from Thursday.

Global markets will track the trend in US equities, which are likely to fall last day. Dow futures fell over 180 points after the release of the US non-farm payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls rose 173,000 in August. Also, unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest rate since April, 2008.

According to the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting, some
policymakers showed concerns over lagging inflation and awaited further progress in the labour
market before tightening monetary policy. There is an expectation that the data will give an indication of the rate hike in US...

Domestically, there are no triggers (for equities). There is talk of having a Parliamentary session for GST (Goods and Service Tax Bill), but it is not happening.

The Nifty is seen finding immediate support at 7500 points level. On the other hand, any rebound in the Nifty could lead the index to face resistance at 8000 points. Among sectors, banking and other rate-sensitive stocks are likely to be weak, with market participants advising investors to avoid them until the market stabilises. Investors advised to buy pharmaceutical and information technology stocks among defensives. The weak rupee against the dollar is a key factor affecting information technology stocks.