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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
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 Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
Domestic share indices are seen weak because of uncertainty in the global markets, impact of
currency curb move and Jul-Sep corporate earnings. Stock indices ended the week at their lowest
closing levels since the end of June. On Monday, local share markets will be closed on account of
Guru Nanak Jayanti.

Release of inflation data for October next week, and industrial production data for September,
released today, will also lend cues to investor sentiment. Industrial production in September grew
only 0.7% as against 3.7% growth a year ago. It, though, managed to beat the estimate of 0.5%.
Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (Combined) and that based on the Wholesale Price
Index will be released on Tuesday after market hours. The CPI inflation rate is seen falling to a 14-
month low of 4.1% in October from 4.31% in September, according to the median of a poll of 22
economists. The WPI inflation rate is seen at 3.7% in October compared with 3.57% a month ago,
according to a median of a poll of 14 economists.

Stocks of consumption related companies such as fast moving consumer good companies and
automobile companies will continue to be under pressure, as the Government’s decision to
demonetize high denomination currency notes is likely to negatively impact their sales in Oct-Dec.
Right now people are wary of buying anything...they are trying to retain cash. However, these stocks
may see a consolidation next week, after the recent fall, as the likelihood of a decline in demand is
mostly priced in now.

Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 8296.30, down 229.45 points or 2.7% from the Previous close, and
the Sensex closed down 698.86 points or 2.5% at 26818.82. Next week, Nifty 50 is seen moving in
the range of 8200-8500 points on only technical based. We do not see any relief amid looming
uncertainty on the global front and not so encouraging domestic cues. So, we are suggest restricting
leveraged positions and wait for the markets to stabilise first.

Interest rate-sensitive stocks such as banks will also remain in focus as prospects of an interest rate
hike in the US increased after the election of Donald Trump as the US president. Trump's policies
are seen stoking inflation in the US, which may lead the US Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Stocks of Nifty 50 companies detailing their earnings later yesterday, on Saturday and next week
will also take centre stage next week. Tata Motors, Aurobindo Pharma and GAIL (India) will detail
their earnings next week, while Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel and Bharat Petroleum Corp has
report their earnings yesterday and on Saturday.

Stocks of Bank of Baroda eyed on Tuesday as the company detailed its Jul-Sep earnings yesterday.
The lender's net profit rose to 5.5 bln from 1.2 bln rupees a year ago and its provisioning for nonperforming
assets went down 11.6% on year to 16.3 bln rupees. Stocks of IL&FS Engineering and
Construction Co are likely to gain as the company secured 1.49-bln-rupee order from the Uttar

Pradesh government.

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Asia shares track Wall Street higher, US dollar firm : 25.10.2016

Asia shares track Wall Street higher, US dollar firm : 25.10.2016


Australian stocks added 0.5 percent and futures pointed to an opening gain of around 0.8 percent for Japan's Nikkei helped by a softening yen.

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Asian shares edged higher on Tuesday while the dollar stood firm as upbeat US earnings boosted Wall Street and factory surveys in the United States and Europe boasted their best readings so far this year. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1 percent with most components yet to trade. Australian stocks added 0.5 percent and futures pointed to an opening gain of around 0.8 percent for Japan's Nikkei helped by a softening yen. Wall Street took encouragement from upbeat corporate results and the Dow rose 0.46 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 0.47 percent and the Nasdaq or 0.91 percent. Over one third of US companies have now reported and 80 percent have beaten market expectations. Another third of the S&P 500 components are scheduled to report earnings this week, including heavyweights Apple , Alphabet , Amazon and Boeing . Merger and acquisition activity added an extra fizz in the wake of AT&T Inc's USD85.4 billion bid for Time Warner Inc , though the deal seemed destined to face stringent scrutiny from regulators. Aiding risk sentiment was the Markit survey of US manufacturing which climbed to a one-year top of 53.2. Business activity in the euro zone also expanded at the fastest pace this year so far in October and firms raised prices at the sharpest rate in more than five years. The better news led investors to nudge up the probability of a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve to around 74 percent and pressured Treasury prices. It also lifted the US dollar to a nine-month high against a basket of major currencies at 98.846. The dollar remained firm on the yen at 104.28 while the euro struggled at USD 1.0870. One mover was the Canadian dollar which rebounded from a seven-month low after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the decision on whether to cut interest rates again was not one to take lightly. The comments countered recent speculation about an imminent easing and nudged the U.S. dollar down to CUSD 1.3352 from a peak at CUSD 1.3398. In commodities, oil prices dipped on news of the impending restart of Britain's Buzzard oilfield and Iraq's wish to be exempted from OPEC production cuts. Brent was down 30 cents at USD 51.48 a barrel while US crude lost 9 cents to USD 50.43.

S&P hits two-week high on strong earnings; M&A supports : 25.10.2016

S&P hits two-week high on strong earnings; M&A supports : 25.10.2016


 The Dow Jones industrial average rose 77.32 points, or 0.43 percent, to 18,223.03, the S&P 500 gained 10.17 points, or 0.47 percent, to 2,151.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 52.43 points, or 1 percent, to 5,309.83.

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The S&P 500 hit a two-week high on Monday on the back of strong earnings, while a flurry of acquisitions indicated corporate America continues to see untapped value in the market. Annualised third-quarter earnings from S&P 500 components are expected to have risen 1.1 percent last quarter, following four quarters of contraction, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data. Of the 120 companies that have reported so far, 78 percent have beaten analyst expectations, above the long-term average of 63.5 percent. Microsoft, which handily beat expectations last week, rose 2.2 percent and Apple, due to report on Tuesday, rose 0.9 percent. "Consensus is earnings are going to continue to improve in part due to favourable energy prices and to strong consumption patterns here in the US," said Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Stifel Nicolaus in Florham Park, New Jersey. Wall Street signalled scepticism that AT&T would be allowed by regulators to purchase Time Warner Inc for a planned USD85.4 billion. Shares of both companies fell as analysts scrutinized the deal, with AT&T down 1.7 percent at USD36.86 and Time Warner Inc down 3.1 percent at USD 86.74. But competitor T-Mobile US jumped to its highest since August 2007 after it raised its forecast for customer additions for the year and said the AT&T-Time Warner deal could help T-Mobile carve out more market share. T-Mobile shares ended up 9.5 percent at USD 51.19. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 77.32 points, or 0.43 percent, to 18,223.03, the S&P 500 gained 10.17 points, or 0.47 percent, to 2,151.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 52.43 points, or 1 percent, to 5,309.83. TD Ameritrade fell 4.4 percent to USD 35.46 after it said it would buy privately held Scottrade Financial Services in a deal valued at USD4 billion. B/E Aerospace jumped 16.4 percent to USD 58.89 after aircraft component maker Rockwell Collins said it would buy the company in a deal valued at USD 6.4 billion plus the assumption of USD 1.9 billion in debt. Rockwell was down 6.2 percent at USD 79.21. "Overall merger and acquisition activity will continue, due in part to low debt financing costs," said Stifel's Morganlander. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 110 new highs and 45 new lows. About 5.8 billion shares changed hands in US exchanges, below the 6.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.

Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -24.10.2016 - .28.10.2016

Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -24.10.2016 - .28.10.2016

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 Indian Market Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.10.2016
(Volatile next week; Jul-Sep earnings in focus)


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Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -24.10.2016 - .28.10.2016


The stock indices are expected to be volatile next week due to expiry of the October
derivative series and because several companies are scheduled to detail their earnings
for Jul-Sep. As many as 21 companies that are part of the Nifty 50, including Bharti
Airtel, Axis Bank, Housing Development Finance Corp, ITC, Hindustan Unilever and
Maruti Suzuki India will announce their Jul-Sep earnings next week.

The expiry of October derivatives contracts might accentuate the volatility next week,
as buyers are likely to remain cautious due to geopolitical Uncertainties, and also
because most corporate earnings announced so far have been disappointing. As long as
there is ample liquidity and bond yields are low, the markets will remain broadly
positive, even as they are likely to consolidate next week.

The risk of capital flight from emerging markets such as India in case of any
unexpected global event would weigh on sentiment. Though volatility will persist,
market participants do not expect any major fall in indices. The Nifty 50 is likely to find
support at the 8540-mark. The Banking stocks will continue to outperform the
benchmark indices. This week, the Nifty Bank index gained 3.6%, registering the
highest weekly gains among all NSE sectoral indices. Chances of a positive surprise in
Jul-Sep earnings from banks are quite high.

In the short term, private sector banks with exposure to corporate business are also
likely to do well because their provisioning looked better now. However, shares of
Wipro are expected to fall on Monday because the company reported below-par
earnings for Jul-Sep. Also, its sales guidance for Oct-Dec was weak. On a sequential
basis, Wipro's consolidated net profit for Jul-Sep rose a mere 1% to 20.7 bln rupees,
while net sales rose only 1.4% to 138.9 bln rupees.

Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -17.10.2016 - .21.10.2016

Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -17.10.2016 - .21.10.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.10.2016

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 17 to 21.10.2016


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Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -17.10.2016 - .21.10.2016


Domestic stock indices are seen consolidating next week because investors will be cautious
ahead of corporate earnings for the September quarter. Among heavyweights, Infosys and
Tata Consultancy Services have disappointed with their Jul-Sep earnings result so far.
Next week, index majors Reliance Industries, YES Bank, HCL Technologies, Wipro, and
UltraTech Cement will report their earnings for quarter ended September.

Indices are also seen consolidating due to concerns over stock valuations and dwindling fund
inflows in the market. Global volatility ahead of upcoming US presidential elections,
prospects of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, challenges pertaining to Brexit, and
prevailing tensions between India and Pakistan will also keep investors guarded.

Next week, the Nifty 50 is likely to find support at the 8540-point mark, and no major
downside is expected. Gains are likely to be capped at 8730 points. Yesterday, the 51-stock
index ended at 8583.40, up 10.05 points or 0.1% from the previous close, while the Sensex
ended at 27673.60, up 30.49 points or 0.1%.

We expect mid-caps to continue their rise as the broad market remains fundamentally
strong. Any fall in mid-caps is nothing but an opportunity to buying. Stocks in the
information technology sector will remain subdued because Infosys cut its sales guidance for
2016-17 (Apr-Mar), and also as earnings of other peers in the sector are seen disappointing
the market.

However, expect stocks of HCL Technologies and Tata Consultancy Services to outperform
those of Wipro and Infosys. HCL Technologies, Wipro, and Mindtree will report their earnings
for the September quarter on Friday.

The Nifty IT index is seen remaining flat to marginally negative next week, with stock
specific value buying opportunities seen emerging from a medium-to-long-term perspective.
Market participants expect companies in the pharmaceutical and cement sectors to
outperform benchmark indices next week.
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Expect rupee to trade lower: 05.10.2016

Expect rupee to trade lower: 05.10.2016


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 The rupee is expected to trade lower within a range of 66.50-67/USD,

"Concerns from the US with respect to rate hike expectations helped the dollar trade higher compared to peers. The rupee is expected to trade lower within a range of 66.50-67/USD."

Profits - Equity-Commodity-Currency- 03.10.2016

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Weekly Indian Sector Outlook - 3.10.2016 -7.10.2016

Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -3.10.2016 - 7.10.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 03 to 07.10.2016
Positive next week; RBI policy, auto sales eyed
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Share prices are likely to rise next week, even as the market focuses on the Reserve Bank of India's
monetary policy, and automobile sales numbers for September. While concern over border tension
with Pakistan will likely persist, the fact that share prices yesterday saw a recovery, albeit a mild one,
indicates that the worries will not be in the limelight. Analyst recommends utilising the recent fall in
share prices as opportunity to buy shares of large-cap companies. They recommend staying away
from shares of mid-cap companies because these may succumb to profit booking if geopolitical
tensions flare up. Share indices ended lower for the first time in seven months yesterday on a monthon- month basis as flows from foreign institutional investors showed signs of slackening.

The fall in shares of telecom companies after the launch of Reliance Jio Infocomm services, concern
over Donald Trump being elected as the US President, and the possibility of a financial crisis due to
Deutsche Bank's inability to pay a $14-bln fine weighed on share prices. As a result, investors have
not aggressively rolled over long positions to the October futures and options series.

The RBI will detail its monetary policy on Tuesday at 1430 IST, with the central bank expected to
leave interest rates unchanged, and maintain a dovish stance. This will be Urjit Patel's policy debut.
The lower-than-expected inflation has opened up room for an interest rate cut, but the RBI may not
do so because of the upside risks to inflation, sticky core inflation, and foreign currency non-resident
(bank) redemptions. Stocks of automobile companies will be in focus next week, as they detail their
sales numbers for September. While the first half of September witnessed strong sales due to Ganesh
Chaturthi and Onam, the second half was muted because of the Shradh season, considered an
inauspicious period for purchase of new vehicles.

Stocks of fuel-related companies will also be in focus in the week ahead. The central government,
after market hours yesterday, cut the price of domestically produced natural gas on a gross-calorificvalue basis to $2.50 mBtu for Oct-Mar from $3.06 mBtu in Apr-Sep. The government is also
scheduled to revise prices of petrol and diesel, done every fortnight. Yesterday the 51-share index
ended at 8611.15, up 19.90 points or 0.2% from the previous close.
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Today Mcx Gold,Silver,Crudeoil Profit : 29.09.2016

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29.Sep.2016: Profit Rs.51,270 Per Lot in STOCK FUTURES PREMIUM TIPS TODAY

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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 19.Sep.2016 to 23.Sep.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 19.Sep.2016 to 23.Sep.2016
(Positive next week; Fed, Bank of Japan policy meets eyed)
========================================================================

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.09.2016 Expected to remain subdued next week

=======================================================================

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.09.2016 Positive next week; Fed, Bank of Japan policy meets eyed

Share indices are seen positive next week, even as investors wait for the monetary policy decisions of
the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve
at its Sep 20-21 meet have come down to less than 50% after data in the world's largest economy
showed a decline in US retail sales and factory output for August. "If the US hikes rates, we are
looking at a 1-day fall in (the) Indian share market. The Nifty (50) may tank by 100-150 points but
will recover then. While the impact of the US Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Indian
markets will be seen on Thursday, the effect of Bank of Japan's policy will be seen on Wednesday.

Views on the course of action that may be adopted by the Bank of Japan, are mixed. Some traders
expect the bank to launch fresh monetary stimulus, but another section of the market does not see it
easing its accommodative stance further. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 8779.85, up 37.30 points
or 0.4% from the previous close, and the Sensex closed at 28599.03, up 186.14 points or 0.7%. Next
week, stocks of rate-sensitive sectors such as automobiles and banks, are likely to see buying as the
next Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy draws closer. The central bank is expected to cut
interest rates in October, owing to lower-than-estimated inflation for August and expectations of
normal monsoons this year.

In the Jun-Sep monsoon season so far, the country has received 771.8 mm weighted-average
rainfall, 5% below the normal of 814.2 mm for the period, according to data from the India
Meteorological Department. Automobile and auto-ancillary stocks may also gain as demand is seen
growing during the festival season. Yesterday, the sector was the leading gainer with the Nifty Auto
index ending up 0.5%. Activity in the domestic stock market may be subdued over the next two
weeks owing to the Pitru Paksha period. This is usual for markets and trade is a little subdued during
Pitru Paksha. Pitru Paksha is a 16-day period in the Hindu calendar that is considered inauspicious.

Another sector that might see traction is the pharmaceutical sector. Sentiment for the sector is
positive given the resolution of various regulatory issues, and on account of investors shifting
allocations between sectors. Pharmaceutical companies have been in the limelight and the Nifty
Pharma gained over 2% this week, compared to a near 1% fall in the Nifty 50.